July 11, 2025 | Lagos, Nigeria — At the Afreximbank annual meeting, industrial magnate Aliko Dangote announced plans to double the capacity of his urea fertilizer plant, currently Africa’s largest, from 3 million to 6 million metric tonnes annually within 40 months. This ambitious expansion aims to end Africa’s reliance on imported fertilizer, estimated at over 6 million tonnes per year, and position Dangote’s plant as the largest single-site urea facility globally, surpassing Qatar’s output .
Currently, about 37% of its 3 Mt output, roughly 16,000 tonnes daily, is shipped to markets like the U.S., Brazil, India, and Mexico. Upon expansion, daily export volumes could rise to 32,000 tonnes, generating an estimated $6.5–7 million in revenue daily, or roughly $2.5 billion annually . Dangote expects the project to also boost non-oil foreign exchange earnings and catalyze regional economic integration under AfCFTA .
To ensure consistent production, Dangote secured a 10-year gas supply deal with Shell SPDC to supply 100 million standard cubic feet per day. Additionally, the company plans an Initial Public Offering on the Nigerian Exchange later this year, with a projected valuation of around $3 billion for the fertilizer plant alone .
Strategic & Economic Implications
End of imports: Africa could become self-reliant in fertilizer within the next 40 months, easing pressure on foreign reserves and stabilizing prices for farmers .
Strong export growth: The envisioned $2.5 billion annual revenue could significantly bolster Nigeria’s non-oil exports and balance of payments.
Regional industrial pivot: With export volumes set to rise, Dangote is positioning Nigeria as a critical hub for regional fertilizer distribution, especially within West and East Africa under the AfCFTA framework .
Infrastructure constraints: Scaling output may be hindered by transport and port bottlenecks. Dangote and the NPA plan to upgrade port capacities, including new tugboats and improved terminals, to meet demand .
Execution risks: Analysts warn that large-scale expansions can face cost inflation and delays. Dangote’s track record (refinery project) shows ambition tempered by operational complexities .