The international coffee market has witnessed a sharp spike in prices, with global benchmarks rising by over 30% in the third quarter of 2025. Industry experts attribute the surge to a combination of extreme weather conditions, logistical challenges, and mounting pressure on key exporting countries.
Leading producers such as Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia have been hit hard by adverse climate events ranging from prolonged droughts to erratic rainfall, severely disrupting harvests and reducing output. In Brazil—the world’s largest coffee exporter—unseasonably dry conditions across major growing regions have cut expected yields significantly, driving speculative buying and pushing prices upward across global trading floors.
The situation in Vietnam, a dominant player in the robusta segment, has been equally troubling. Reports from agricultural authorities suggest that erratic weather patterns and rising input costs have affected crop quality and delayed shipments. Meanwhile, Colombia continues to grapple with internal logistical bottlenecks and labour-related disruptions, further tightening global supply chains.
Compounding these challenges is a spike in global freight and insurance costs, which has made it more expensive to move commodities across borders. The Red Sea crisis and ongoing geopolitical tensions have also impacted shipping lanes, slowing deliveries and contributing to global commodity volatility.
Traders note that hedge funds and institutional investors have significantly increased their positions in coffee futures over recent weeks, fuelling bullish sentiment and accelerating the price rally. Retailers and distributors are already warning of a trickle-down effect on consumers, as roasters and coffee chains begin to adjust pricing models to reflect the new cost realities.
Analysts warn that if current conditions persist, the world could be heading toward a prolonged period of elevated coffee prices, with developing economies—where coffee is both a staple and a key source of foreign exchange—facing the most pressure.
The Q3 surge underscores the fragile nature of agricultural commodity markets in the face of climate change, and highlights the urgent need for long-term adaptation strategies within the global coffee value chain.