Following the U.S. airstrike on the Fordo underground nuclear facility on June 22, Iran’s domestic political landscape has fractured sharply. The attack—part of a coordinated strike also including Natanz and Isfahan, has intensified a clash between hardliners urging military retaliation and moderates warning against further escalation with the United States.
On one side stand ultra-hardliners, amplified by state-controlled media. They are demanding escalation, including missile strikes on U.S. naval assets in Bahrain and even shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil choke point.
Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson Abolfazl Shekarchi characterized the U.S. action as a “crime,” with the IRGC on high alert and calls for immediate retaliation proliferating.
In contrast, moderate and reformist voices caution that swift escalation could backfire, isolating Iran further and inflicting severe economic damage. These elements argue that a heavy-handed military response risks undermining the populace’s support and could lead to catastrophic consequences.
Adding to the complexity is the ruptured trust in leadership. Crowd-sourced reports from Telegram and Iranian diaspora channels suggest ordinary citizens feel abandoned—some chanting “Death to Khamenei” from their balconies, reflecting growing defiance rooted in previous protests such as the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement and broader economic grievances.
Meanwhile, opposition-in-exile groups, including Reza Pahlavi—the son of Iran’s last Shah, have seized the moment. Pahlavi urged supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei to step aside and called on citizens to “rise” and reclaim Iran, signalling an opportunity for a transitional government.
Against this backdrop, the government is taking aggressive security measures. Basij militia units have been placed on alert in cities like Qom to stamp out dissent and monitor emerging protests
At present, Iran faces a volatile crossroads. Hardliners push a militaristic response to foreign interference; moderates urge caution to avoid catastrophic economic and diplomatic fallout; and protesters, energized by years of suppressed dissent, harbour growing antipathy toward the ruling establishment.
As global eyes focus on Tehran, Iran’s leaders must choose between confrontation and restraint. Their decision in the coming days may determine whether the strike deepens the country’s political crisis or triggers an irreversible spiral of conflict. The underlying rift exposed by the Fordo strike suggests this is only the opening salvo—not the climax—of an internal showdown with regional and global implications.
