Efforts to form a strong opposition coalition against President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections are facing setbacks due to zoning disputes and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s potential candidacy. Key figures in the coalition, including Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi, advocate for power to remain in the South, while Atiku’s camp is pushing for his return to the presidency.
Coalition Formation and Political Realignment
On March 21, 2025, Atiku, Obi, and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai officially announced a coalition aimed at unseating Tinubu. The coalition’s formation has sparked debates on the best strategy for opposition parties to unite.
Atiku has repeatedly emphasized the importance of opposition unity. His efforts to consolidate power intensified following El-Rufai’s defection from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) on March 10, which added momentum to discussions.
Other notable political figures, including former governors Rotimi Amaechi and Kayode Fayemi, have been linked to the coalition but were absent from the official announcement.
Why Coalition Talks Are Stalling
Sources within the coalition discussions revealed that negotiations are slow due to competing political ambitions.
- Zoning Dispute: Obi and Amaechi’s camps argue that the presidency should remain in the South for another term to complete the North-South rotation.
- Atiku’s Ambition: Atiku’s hesitation to rule out another presidential bid has made many Southern politicians reluctant to commit to the coalition.
A source stated, “Without clarity on zoning, many Southern politicians fear Atiku could secure the ticket again, just as he did in 2019 and 2023. If that happens, they risk losing both their personal ambitions and their region’s claim to the presidency.”
Opposing Views on Zoning
The zoning debate has divided coalition members:
- Support for Zoning: Peter Ahmeh, a close ally of Obi and National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties, insists that power should remain in the South for eight years. He warned that breaking the unwritten North-South rotation agreement could fracture opposition unity.
- Opposition to Zoning: NNPP leader Buba Galadima dismissed zoning as irrelevant, arguing that the focus should be on ensuring credible elections rather than regional power-sharing. The PDP’s Deputy National Youth Leader, Timothy Osadolor, also believes the coalition’s presidential ticket should be open to all.
Future of the Coalition
While opposition leaders agree on the need for unity, unresolved zoning disputes and Atiku’s uncertain candidacy could derail the coalition’s progress. To succeed, coalition leaders must either reach a consensus on zoning or risk internal divisions weakening their chances against Tinubu in 2027.
