Global crude oil markets witnessed fresh losses on Friday following an announcement by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who revealed that a final decision on whether America would militarily support Israel in its ongoing conflict with Iran would be made within the next two weeks. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. involvement has injected a fresh wave of volatility into already fragile markets.
For much of the week, there had been growing speculation that Washington might swiftly align with Tel Aviv in its escalating military campaign against Tehran. However, Trump’s unexpected remark on Thursday, indicating that he intends to allow a two-week period for diplomatic channels to potentially de-escalate the crisis, caused market sentiment to swing sharply.
As of Friday afternoon, both major oil benchmarks, Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate, had shed close to 2% of their value compared to Thursday’s closing figures. Analysts say the market reaction underscores the deep geopolitical uncertainty hovering over the energy sector and wider global economy.
Stephen Innes, chief global strategist at SPI Asset Management, observed that crude oil prices remain the primary driver of market sentiment. He noted that “volatility is the real demon haunting the trading floor,” adding that the oil market is effectively operating within a highly combustible geopolitical climate. “We’re essentially sitting on a powder keg with a lit fuse. Every trader knows we’re just a couple of headlines away from a full-blown market disruption,” he said.
Innes warned that Trump’s two-week ‘thinking window’ should not be misinterpreted as a period of calm or de-escalation. “This is not a cooling-off period, it’s a ticking volatility clock,” he stated, cautioning investors to brace for further fluctuations depending on how the geopolitical dynamics unfold in the coming days.
Meanwhile, equity markets also struggled to maintain direction, with traders attempting to close a volatile trading week on a stable note. Global stock indices have been reacting sharply to every development in the Iran-Israel standoff, and analysts suggest that any U.S. involvement could trigger immediate spikes in crude prices, inflation expectations, and risk premiums across multiple asset classes.
While diplomatic efforts continue behind the scenes, especially in Geneva where Iranian and European officials are locked in talks, markets remain on edge, awaiting the next big move from Washington. With Trump holding the decision card and global tensions refusing to ease, traders and analysts alike are bracing for what could be a decisive and turbulent fortnight ahead.
