RIVERS STATE STABILITY CRITICAL FOR NIGERIA TO ACHIEVE 2.2MBPD OIL PRODUCTION TARGET – NESG

The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that achieving the nation’s crude oil production target of 2.2 million barrels per day hinges significantly on political stability in Rivers State, following recent tensions in the oil-rich region.
Dr. Tayo Aduloju, Chief Executive Officer of NESG, issued this caution during a media interaction following the launch of the organization’s Private Sector Outlook 2025 Report on Friday, emphasizing the correlation between Rivers State’s political climate and national oil output.
“Whether you like it or not, if your top earner is oil and oil struggles, we will feel it. Anyone who has followed Nigeria’s oil production over the years will understand that what happens in Rivers State quickly reflects in the numbers,” Aduloju stated.
The NESG chief’s remarks come nearly two weeks after President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State on March 18, citing escalating political unrest and attacks on critical oil infrastructure. The presidential declaration resulted in the six-month suspension of Governor Sim Fubara, his deputy, and the state’s House of Assembly, with retired Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas appointed as interim administrator.
“There is some correlation between the stability of Rivers and oil production, and I think it has to do with where some of those assets are located,” Aduloju explained. “You will notice that the state of emergency declaration was triggered on the basis of an attack on petroleum assets.”
The economic expert stressed that meeting the 2.2 million barrels per day target—a figure central to Nigeria’s 2025 budget projections—requires immediate resolution of political tensions in the state.
“If we want to keep crude oil production at 2.2mbpd, which is the budget target, we must achieve political stability in Rivers. Without prejudice to any of the actors, all interventions to create real political stability in the state have to be encouraged by all.”
Aduloju expressed confidence in Nigeria’s capacity to achieve the production target, noting that output had previously risen from as low as 1.1 million barrels per day to nearly 2.8 million under improved conditions.
“The government has shown since it came in; remember we moved from 1.1, 2.2mbpd all the way to almost 2.8 million barrels a day, showing that the government can do 2.2mbpd. With this trajectory, the incremental production per day means it’s possible,” he noted.
The declaration of emergency rule in Rivers State has generated significant controversy nationwide, with supporters arguing it is necessary for restoring order, while critics contend it violates constitutional provisions.
Meanwhile, Dr. Joseph Ogebe, Head of Research and Development at NESG, highlighted several opportunities for private sector growth, including “product diversification, innovation through technology-driven solutions to enhance productivity and competitiveness,” and strengthened public-private partnerships to address infrastructure gaps and policy challenges.
The Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, has reportedly intensified security measures in collaboration with military forces and local stakeholders to combat oil theft and vandalism in the Niger Delta region.
Industry analysts observe that prolonged instability in Rivers State could have severe implications not only for Nigeria’s oil output but for the entire national economy, potentially undermining government revenue projections and foreign exchange earnings.